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Хлопала, хлопаю и буду хлопать...

Вторник, день тяжёлый, поэтому сегодня без таблиц.
Немного лирики от "Economist". Надергала тезисов из статьи от 23.04.2023.
Наслаждаемся


https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/04/23/russias-economy-can-withstand-a-long-war-but-not-a-more-intense-one

Aweek after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, crowed, “The value of the ruble has plummeted; the Russian stockmarket closed as fear of capital flight rose; interest rates more than doubled; Russia’s credit rating has been cut to junk status.” American authorities clearly hoped that the “massive, unprecedented consequences” they and their allies had imposed on Russia, including “severe and lasting economic costs”, would help impede its war machine. Yet over the following year, despite the repeated tightening of Western sanctions, Russia’s economy recovered its poise. The imf expects it to grow by 0.7% this year—on a par with France, and even as the British and German economies shrink. The hope that the state of Russia’s economy will provide any sort of constraint on the war has faded.


Russia’s bureaucracy has achieved three feats over the past 14 months. It has found ways to withstand the fusillade of sanctions that Mr Blinken heralded. It has supplied enough men and materiel to propel Russia’s invasion. And all this has been done without a sharp decline in living standards, which might prompt popular unrest.
Russia is having to cope with the broadest array of sanctions ever imposed on a big country, including on individuals associated with the war, on financial transactions involving Russian entities, on exports of certain goods to Russia and on imports of most goods from Russia. [b]

Yet this economic assault has yielded disappointing results, in part because there were always big holes in the sanctions regime and in part because Russia has found ways around some of the restrictions that did initially hem it in.



Restrictions on exports of certain goods to Russia have also disappointed. America and its allies have banned sales to Russia of thousands of high-tech items..
...yet Russia continues to import almost as much as it did before the invasion. New trading partners have sprung up to replace the West.


Russia also seems to be getting hold of the parts it needs to keep its civilian planes airborne, somehow. Hackers have been stealing updates of aircraft software that Russian firms can no longer buy. Crashes, although frequent by Western standards, have not increased.

Asian buyers have been happy to absorb the oil that Europe is spurning. In March nearly 90% of Russia’s total crude exports went to China and India. These new buyers, plus high commodity prices brought about in part by the war, helped push Russia’s current-account surplus to a record $227bn—10% of gdp.


Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund still has about $150bn (about 10% of gdp), even after being drained of about $30bn last year. Russian financial institutions hold sufficient assets to cover 10trn-rouble deficits for 25 years–a huge resource the government might seek to tap in some way.


The government’s third economic achievement has been to maintain living standards. Last year it spent an extra 3% of gdp to stimulate the economy. Aside from higher spending on the military, support is coming in the form of economic aid to civilian companies: direct handouts to firms, subsidised loans, joint investments and so on. Spending on the budget category that subsumes many of these items, “national economy”, rose by 20% in 2022, to 4.3trn roubles. Between January and mid-March it increased by another 45% compared with the same period last year. Banks are being asked to give indebted firms breathing room. In 2022 business failures fell to a seven-year low.

Last year “social” spending also rose, from 6trn to 7trn roubles (4.5% of gdp).

All this may explain why the war has not affected Russian living standards all that much. Consumer prices did rise by 12% last year, in large part because of a depreciation of the rouble in the spring. Average pay at medium-sized and large companies, which include many state-owned entities, rose marginally last year even after accounting for inflation. The value of people’s savings has fallen only slightly, central-bank statistics suggest. Inflation fell back to 3.5% in March.


Overall, the Russian economy has proved resilient. Real gdp fell by only 2-3% last year—far less than the 10-15% decline that many economists had predicted. A “current activity indicator” compiled by Goldman Sachs, a bank, which correlated closely with official gdp numbers before the war, shows that Russia emerged from recession about a year ago. Most forecasters believe the economy will grow this year



Mr Putin has succeeded in insulating the Russian economy from the worst effects of war and sanctions

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Хлопала, хлопаю и буду хлопать...

Ещё немного вторника. Так как вторника много не бывает


На этот раз - "Financial Times" со статьей "Allies resist US plan to ban all G7 exports to Russia".
https://www.ft.com/content/ee8c2ade-4f94-426f-881b-d6f9621231b8


Для тех кому лень, многа букав и английскийнеродной - краткий пересказ статьи:

EU and Japanese diplomats say that Washington’s proposal is ‘simply not do-able’

Без комментариев....

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Хлопала, хлопаю и буду хлопать...

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-Полно, Борис Фёдорович, везде врагов искать.
-Дык я же не ищу...они сами нас находят. (с)

На минуту отошла от темы и уже загажено
Ну вот когда люди успевают и причем здесь Швеция?

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Хлопала, хлопаю и буду хлопать...

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Хлопала, хлопаю и буду хлопать...

Пятница - тяпница

Вести с санкционных полей :


Московитские болота:

"...U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in a telephone conversation with Russian pranksters Vladimir Kuznetsov (Vovan) and Alexei Stolyarov (Lexus), praised the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina.

“The Russians managed to avoid the most severe consequences of the sanctions. We all know the head of the Central Bank of Russia, she handles all quite well. She is an uncommonly capable specialist, she is very knowledgeable and intelligent. She will do everything to ensure that the Russians avoid sanctions as much as possible,” the U.S. Federal Reserve chair said...."



Сияющий град на холме:

First Republic Bank Teeters on the Brink of Collapse
First Republic Bank (FRC) is teetering on the brink of collapse as shares fell to new all-time lows on reports the federal government and the nation’s biggest banks are reluctant to put together a rescue package.
The beleaguered lender reported deposit outflows of more than $100 billion in the first quarter, or 40% of the total.
That figure would have exceeded 50% if not for a $30 billion injection of uninsured deposits from 11 of the nation’s biggest banks in March.
In response, shares of FRC plunged almost 50% yesterday, and are down another 30% today. The bank’s market cap fell below $1 billion in intraday trading, a small fraction of its $40 billion peak in November 2021. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio fell as low as 0.7. The stock’s volatility prompted the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to halt trading of FRC 12 times Wednesday.
To make matters worse, First Republic faces the prospect of losing access to the Fed’s lending facilities if a private deal isn’t reached soon, Bloomberg reported.

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Хлопала, хлопаю и буду хлопать...

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Хлопала, хлопаю и буду хлопать...

“Германия выступает против идеи ЕС передать замороженные активы ЦБ РФ на восстановление Украины, это вызывает сложные финансовые и юридические вопросы.

Financial Times”



Ну да, а то вдруг Пригожин придёт , хрен знает этих русских .)

Пригожин шухер устроил во всем мире )

Границы закрывают , меняют назначения важных лиц , закупают туалетную бумагу массово .

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Россия без каждого из нас обойтись может. Но никто из нас не может
обойтись без России.
Иван С. Тургенев



"Радость -есть особая мудрость"
Письма Е. И. Рерих 1929 - 1939. Том 2. письмо от 7. 5. 38.